Estabilização da inflação através de uma politica monetária ativaum exercício de simulação

Resumo

This article tries to evaluate, in a preliminary fashion, the effects which alternative paths for the Money stock (MI), in Brazil, would have on the behavior of a variety of macroeconomic variables like the inflation rate, the level of economic activity, and the interest rate. This analysis is done in a context in which estimates (even imprecise) of the effects are basically unavailable. Taking as a starting point the estimation of a Vector Auto-Regression and using sample data up to November of 1988, we simulate short-run alternative trajectories for the stock of some financial assets, for the interest rate and the rate growth of industrial production. The trajectories conditioned to the stabilization of the monthly inflation rate at 28% are compared to the ones obtained when the stabilization of the inflation rate is obtained through what we identify as an active monetary policy.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

1990

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/5016

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil; até novembro de 1988

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

InflaçãoMoedaTaxa de inflação