Efeitos dos choques fiscais no Brasilreprodução do artigo "What are the effects of the fiscal policy shocks?" de Andrew Mountford e Harald Uhlig, para dados da economia brasileira entre 1997 e 2019

Resumo

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the Brazilian economy based on to the structural VAR model, identified through the signal restriction method developed by (MOUNTFORD; UHLIG, 2009). The sample relates to the period between 1997 and 2019. The study verified that the Government Revenue Shock may have distortionary results and presented irrelevant responses. Consequently, the Tax Cut Fiscal Policy via Deficit presented positive fiscal multipliers, but with insignificant values. The Government Spending Shock also showed little relevant results, but indicated that it stimulates GDP, Consumption and Investment and that, in general, it is in line with the Keynesian theory. Thus, the Fiscal Policy of Government Spending Shock Via Deficit seems to suggest positive effects on GDP; although the corresponding government spending multiplier calculated was low, which suggests a reduced effect on the growth of the economy

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2023

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/33921

Temas

EconomiaFinanças PúblicasDados

Palavras-chave

Fiscal shocksPublic spendingPublic investmentVAR modelPolítica fiscalChoque fiscalGastos do governoReceitas do governoReceitas tributáriasMultiplicador fiscalModelo VAR estruturalRestrições de sinaisEconomiaPolítica tributáriaEconomia - BrasilDespesa públicaFinanças públicasModelos macroeconômicos