Efeitos do aumento da produção do setor petróleo sobre o potencial de crescimento da economia brasileiraum modelo voltado para a projeção (2013-2020)

Resumo

The article provides a model aimed at the projection of the potential growth of the Brazilian economy for the period 2013-2020, with particular emphasis regarding the expected increase in oil production sector. Inspired by the growth models of two and three gaps, the model in question innovates to jointly propose: a) make endogenous the response of economic policy, under the assumption that the current macroeconomic “tripod” (administered flexible exchange, inflation and primary fiscal surplus targets) will be maintained throughout the course of the simulation; b) treat separately the effects of the oil sector on the balance of payments; c) check the compatibility between the public investment rate permitted by primary fiscal surplus target and that required to maintain the stock of capital growth in line with real GDP increase.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2015

Instituição

Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração, Contabilidade e Atuária

Fonte

Estudos Econômicos

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

DOI

10.1590/0101-416145367alb

Identificador

oai:revistas.usp.br:article/63978

Licença

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0

Temas

EconomiaFinanças Públicas

Palavras-chave

modelo de projeçãoeconomia brasileirapotencial de crescimentosetor petróleo