Economic activity in 2001what the leading indicators forecast

Resumo

These notes present the forecasts for the economic activity in 2001 using the leading indicators technique. Three reference variables - that is, the objective of the prediction - are examined : Gross Domestic Product; Construction Product; and Manufacturing Product. The first two variables are expressed in quarterly basis, and the former in monthly basis. All reference variables are computed by IBGE. We claim that - whatever the current changes in the externai factors - there already exist signs that the Brazilian economy will face a tuming point in the first quarter of 2001. The worsen of the extemal scenario only strengths the slowdown, in the same way as positive effects from the world economy would boost and favor the economic growth. Next section summarizes the leading indicators methodology. The details of the composite leading indicators and their forecasts are presented in section III. Section IV concludes the article.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Outro

Ano

2000

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/14580

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil; 2001

Temas

EconomiaDados

Palavras-chave

Condições EconômicasCiclos EconômicosIndicadores EconômicosProjeções EconômicasTécnicas de previsãoEventos