Dependência na duração das flutuações econômicas no Brasilevidências para o período 1947-2017

Resumo

This paper aims to investigate whether there is a dependence on the duration of the business and growth cycles in Brazil. This concept is related to the hypothesis that as the phases of the cycles become longer, its probabilities of reaching an end may increase (positive dependence), or decrease (negative dependence). For this purpose, it is built a quarterly series of the gross domestic product (GDP) covering the period from 1947 to 2017. Then, this time series is subjected to some dating procedures. The duration dependence tests are carried out for expansions, recessions, and full cycles, by two different approaches: i) first, estimation of logit regressions; and ii) second, survival analysis with the Weibull risk function. The results of the logit models point to the presence of positive duration dependence for recessions and expansions. Regarding the survival analysis, it indicates positive dependence for expansions, recessions, and full cycles. These findings imply that
 it is unlikely that a cycle phase will have a short duration, which requires increased attention with variables such as unemployment, and sluggish production pace during slowdowns and inflation accelerations in expansions.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2023

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

DOI

10.38116/ppp65art4

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/13146

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil; 1947-2017

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Ciclos EconômicosCiclos produtivosDependência na duraçãoLogitAnálise de sobrevivência