Climate change policy in Brazil and Mexicoresults from the MIT EPPA model

Resumo

Based on an in-depth analysis of results from the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model of climate policies for Brazil and Mexico, we demonstrate that commitments by Mexico and Brazil for 2020 made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun are reachable, but they come at different costs for each country. We find that Brazil's commitments will be met through reduced deforestation, and at no additional cost; however, Mexico's pledges will cost 4 billion US dollars in terms of reduced GDP in 2020. We explore short and long-term implications of several policy scenarios after 2020, considering current policy debates in both countries. The comparative analysis of these two economies underscores the need for climate policy designed for the specific characteristics of each country, accounting for variables such as natural resources and current economic structure. Our results also suggest that both Brazil and Mexico may face other environmental and economic impacts from stringent global climate policies, affecting variables such as the value of energy resources in international trade. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Artigo científico

Ano

2016

Instituição

Elsevier Science Bv

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Inglês

Acesso

Acesso aberto

DOI

10.1016/j.eneco.2015.04.007

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/23613

Temas

EconomiaMeio Ambiente

Palavras-chave

Climate policyBrazilMexicoGeneral equilibriumLand useBiofuelsEconomiaSolo - UsoBiocombustíveis