Cenários para as taxas de juros e inflação para 2006-2007Qual deveria ser a meta de inflação de 2008?

Resumo

In June 2006 the National Monetary Council is going to define the inflation target to 2008. That is why it is important to try to preview what the inflation behavior could be in 2006 and 2007. The results suggest that it will not be easy to accomplish strictly the inflation target (4.5%) in 2007 considering a depreciation scenario of the real compared to the dollar (moderate or higher) at the same time that the interest rates continue to decrease. Therefore it is suggested that the National Monetary Council defines the inflation target for 2008 again in 4.5% in its June 2006 meeting keeping the target of 2007 also to 2008. Furthermore it is clear that to make it possible to combine persistent lower inflation rates with higher economic growth rates than the mean of the last 25 years, it is necessary to increase the potential output growth rate.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Estudo

Ano

2006

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/1886

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil; 2006-2008

Temas

EconomiaDesenvolvimento Econômico

Palavras-chave

InflaçãoMeta de inflaçãoCrescimento econômicoProduto potencial