Cenários de expansão do Pé-de-Meiacustos, focalização e escolhas de política

Resumo

This discussion paper examines expansion scenarios for Brazil’s PédeMeia program based on estimates using data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua). The analysis focuses on fiscal costs, targeting performance, and broader public policy implications. Four alternatives are compared: inclusion of 9thgrade students in lower secondary education and students enrolled in lower-level Youth and Adult Education (EJA); extension of the eligible age range up to 29 years; universalization to all public uppersecondary students; and expansion to young people from households with per capita income between 0.5 and 1 minimum wage. The results suggest that expanding coverage to the 9th grade – especially when centered on the completion incentive – is the option most consistent with the program’s educational and distributive rationale, with relatively manageable costs. Extending eligibility up to age 29 entails moderate fiscal impact but requires stronger evidence on its effectiveness in inducing school return and persistence. Expanding the income criterion preserves some degree of targeting but substantially increases recurrent expenditures and poses additional operational challenges. Universalization, in turn, appears to be the least advisable alternative, as it combines higher cost, weaker targeting, and greater risk of undermining the program’s core purpose as a focused instrument to reduce uppersecondary dropout.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Estudo

Ano

2026

Instituição

Ipea

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

DOI

10.38116/td3192-port

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/20813

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

Políticas PúblicasFinanças Públicas

Palavras-chave

Política EducacionalPé-de-MeiaCenários de expansãoUniversalização versus focalizaçãoI Health, Education, and Welfare::I2 Education and Research Institutions::I22 Educational Finance - Financial AidI Health, Education, and Welfare::I2 Education and Research Institutions::I28 Government PolicyI Health, Education, and Welfare::I3 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty::I38 Government Policy - Provision and Effects of Welfare ProgramsH Public Economics::H5 National Government Expenditures and Related Policies::H52 Government Expenditures and EducationExpansion scenariosUniversalization vs. targetingEducation policy