Avaliação do value at risk do índice Bovespa usando os modelos garch, tarch e riskmetrics tm para se estimar a volatilidade

Resumo

The purpose of this dissertation is to compare the performance of three methods of volatility estimating used for value at risk models: an exponentially weighted moving average (RiskMetrics TM), GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) and TARCH (Threshold model). Concerning the latter, we decided to test it, given that GARCH models cannot properly capture the leverage etTect (negative shocks have a larger impact on volatility than positive shocks). The sample covers the daily São Paulo Stock Exchange index from 2 January 1995 to 30 December 1996. The test results indicated that the alternative models did not outperform RiskMetrics™ under the particular market conditions observed in the time period studied. Despite the fact that TARCH model can cope with negative or positive skewness, this model did not provide better results than RiskMetrics™. It seems to be reasonable not to attempt to make any general statement that one method is undoubtedly superior to another, given that test results may depend on the data period employed.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

1998

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/4852

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Value at riskRiskMetricsRisco de mercadoVolatilidadeModelo GARCHModelo TARCHAdministração de empresasRisco (Economia)Mercado financeiro - Modelos econométricos