Antecipação fiscal, não fundamentalidade e não causalidade no Brasil

Resumo

So far, there are very few papers concerning the problems of non causality and non-fundamentalness in fiscal studies. This is even truer for Brazil. Non causality and non fundamentalness are econometric problems that are specially relevant in fiscal studies, as they are related to fiscal foresight, a natural phenomenon in fiscal studies. Fiscal foresight is the ability, by market participants, to forecast and preview government expenditures before they effectively happen. This happens because of the legal bureaucracy that commands fiscal expenditures and tax collection. The present paper fulfills part of this gap by presenting and discussing those issues and by treating such a problem reported in Brazilian data. We estimate a non causal VAR with Brazilian typical data and compare its forecasts to a regular causal VAR, using the same data found to be non-fundamental by Vonbun and Lima (2020). The results suggest that expectations may have a role in the determination of the effects fiscal policy, as the non causal VAR has shown substantially better predictive ability than the regular causal VAR for that dataset.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Estudo

Ano

2021

Instituição

Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea)

Fonte

Repositório do Ipea

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.ipea.gov.br:11058/10873

Licença

Licença Comum

Abrangência

Brasil

Temas

Finanças Públicas

Palavras-chave

Administração FiscalEconometriaAntecipação fiscalNão fundamentalidadeNão causalidade