Análise do impacto de variáveis de demanda agregada no nível de emprego por setor no Brasil

Resumo

This study investigates the dynamics of sectoral employment levels in Brazil from 2012 to 2024, relating them to aggregate demand variables through an ARDL model with errorcorrection (ECM). The motivation stems from the rapid post-COVID-19 employment recovery and the contrast between classical and Keynesian approaches to demand’s role. Monthly data for six sectors—Agriculture, Industry, Construction, Trade, Services, and Accommodation & Food—were analyzed using percentage changes, except for inflation and household indebtedness. Unit-root tests (ADF and PP) showed all series to be integrated of order one (I(1)), justifying the ARDL application. Complementary ETS models indicated no deterministic trend and limited seasonality, guiding the ECM specification. Lagged dependent variables revealed strong persistence across all segments. In the “Total Employment”, Gross National Income and the Consumer Confidence Index exhibit significantly positive long-run elasticities, while Total Credit and Household Indebtedness have a net contractionary effect. Economic Uncertainty negatively and persistently affects employment. In Trade, credit remains expansionary but uncertainty acts as a structural brake. Services and Accommodation & Food are sensitive to inflation and income; however, excessive credit shocks and uncertainty depress employment. Industry and Construction respond to credit and indebtedness changes in the short run, but their long-run multipliers diminish after lagged adjustments. The results highlight sectoral heterogeneity and suggest that credit-stimulus policies should prioritize financial sustainability and macroeconomic predictability. It is recommended to strengthen instruments that boost confidence and stabilize expectations, as well as to promote long-term financing lines to support balanced job creation across Brazil’s economic segments.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2025

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/37461

Temas

Economia

Palavras-chave

Ocupação setorialARDL-ECMDemanda agregadaSectoral employmentAggregate demandEconomiaEmprego (Teoria econômica)Demanda (Teoria econômica)Relações intersetoriaisModelos econométricos