A persistência do patenteamento no Brasilevidências com modelos dinâmicos de contagem

Resumo

This dissertation examines the persistence of monthly patent filings in Brazil and their relationship with industrial activity. The study combines data from the Brazilian National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI) with indicators from the Monthly Industrial Survey of Physical Production (PIM-PF), produced by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), covering the period from 2002 to 2023. The empirical analysis relies on dynamic count-data models, which are suitable for both the discrete nature of patent filings and the temporal dependence observed in the series. The main finding is that patenting activity in Brazil exhibits strong persistence: past filings remain relevant in explaining the number of new filings in subsequent months. Industrial production also provides additional explanatory information, although its relationship with patenting varies according to the level of aggregation. The association is positive for aggregate industrial production and more pronounced in the extractive sector. By contrast, no statistically significant relationship is found for the manufacturing sector as a whole. Positive associations nevertheless emerge in more specific settings that are more closely aligned with the underlying productive and technological activities, particularly in the models relating Petrobras to the extractive sector and Deere & Company to the agricultural machinery segment. The results indicate that patenting in Brazil follows a persistent dynamic and that its relationship with industrial production becomes clearer when the analysis focuses on specific sectors, firms, and productive segments.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2026

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Acesso aberto

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/40389

Temas

EconomiaDesenvolvimento EconômicoTecnologiaDados

Palavras-chave

PatentesInovaçãoProdução industrialSéries temporais de contagemPersistênciaPatent filingsInnovationIndustrial productionCount time seriesPersistenceEconomiaProdução (Teoria econômica)Indústrias - BrasilAnálise de séries temporais