2040: o aquecimento global gerando impacto econômico na produção de cana no Estado de São Paulo

Resumo

The basic issue of this study is to assess the degree of influence of the climate change in the production of sugarcane and the impact on the development of the sugar-energy sector in Brazil. The global warming is a climate phenomenon of great extension: the increase in the average temperature on the Earth's surface has been taking place since the beginning of the last century. Several scientific debates have been seeking to explain this phenomenon of temperature rise. The great debate among scientists is knowing whether the causes are just the natural cycles of the planet and / or whether they have been caused by mankind (anthropogenic).The global warming, either caused by the influence of human development, or by the planet's natural cyclical factors, or both, is a reality that will have to be faced in the coming decades. Today, the state of Sao Paulo presents the best climatic conditions for sugarcane production in Brazil and a climate change may generate a direct economic impact on the sugar-ethanol sector in Brazil, as well as on the Brazilian GDP. In this sense, an assessment is made, considering the temperature rise in the coming decades, the possible changes both in the expansion of planted area and the production of sugarcane in Sao Paulo, having as a basic premise the climate scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) in 2007.

Ficha do documento

Tipo

Dissertação

Ano

2010

Instituição

Fundação Getulio Vargas

Fonte

Repositório da FGV

Idioma

Português

Acesso

Não informado

Identificador

oai:repositorio.fgv.br:10438/8282

Temas

EconomiaMeio Ambiente

Palavras-chave

Cane productionGlobal warmingSugarcaneProdução de canaCana-de-açúcarAquecimento globalEconomiaCana-de-açúcar - São Paulo (Estado)Mudanças climáticasAquecimento global - Aspectos econômicosAgroindústria canavieira - São Paulo (Estado)